The 2012 Race Is Over. EBK and APC have won clean and outright. No Second Round is Needed. Am pa, Am pong. End of Story!
SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS
A. EBK/APC has won the 2012 election upon the conclusion of very First Round. Bio/Dr. Sesay/SLPP New Directions have suffered a most woeful national defeat that will shake the slpp to its crumbling foundations for years to come. Unfortunately for the two-party system, longterm beneficial reforms from within the slpp are not likely in the near term.
B. Herewith is my perception of how our registered voters voted yesterday. I estimate that 2,300,000 valid votes were cast during First Round balloting.
C. I estimate that when the votes are completely counted, EBK will garner 65% or circa 1,500,000 valid votes but not less than 1,260,000 valid votes. All others will receive circa 35% or about 800,000 valid votes but not more than 103,500,000 valid votes in case EBK got less than 65%.
ASSUMPTIONS:
1. OVERALL VOTER TURNOUT and casting valid votes will not exceed 75% of all those voters registered.
2. TURNOUT may be affected by the NEC-imposed restrictions on private transportation for
security reasons.
3. SLPP will be shut out of power in the Western Area, the Northern Region and in Kono.
4. APC will win every parliamentary seat in the Western Area and in the North.
5. APC will gain 60% or more of the popular vote in Kono. Total APC vote in the East will total 40%.
6. APC will gain 40% of the vote in Pujehun and lesser amounts in Bo, Bonthe and Moyamba. Total APC vote in the South will reach 30% of the valid votes cast.
7. Bio/SLPP will win lacklusterly in Kenema, Kailahun and all of Southern Province and APC will continue to be on their case henceforth in the slpp heartland, a region burning for development that slpp ignored for years.
8. Dr. Kadi Sesay's presence in the SLPP ticket under Madder Bio had no good meaning to Northern or female voters. APC will gain majorities in the North circa 85% of the valid vote cast. In numerous Northern precincts, Bio/Sesay/SLPP will get zero vote.
9. APC will get up to 75% of the vote in the Western Area and will crush SLPP in every parliamentary constituency, every city council ward and in the contest for Mayor.
10. APC will have a large majority of seats in parliament, possibly up to 74.
11. Apart from APC and SLPP, the 7 other parties will have to reform or fade away soon.
12. After a period of quiet, slpp heartlanders will come heavy on the crooks, liars, fakes, outsiders, jujumongers, tribalists, intimidators, threatmongers and other dysfunctional types in their party but such a noble endeavor would be an uphill battle.
What is needed now by slppers is soul-searching, not denial, cuss-cuss and rudeness.
© 2012, COCORIOKO. All rights reserved. – Discuss this and other related articles on the Salone Forum
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