By Josh Cohen:
There has been much talk among analysts about the risks of inflation due to the Fed 's implementation of Quantitative Easing . At this point, however, as the US economy appears dangerously close to stalling, all signs indicate that - while we are not in deflation now - we are certainly trending a lot closer to deflation then inflation. Let us consider some of the indications of this trend in charts. First, the 10 year yield has trended steadily downwards, a sure sign that investors are not worried about inflation:
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Second, both crude oil and copper have seen sharp downdrafts recently. In my mind, of all the commodities , copper and oil are the single two best indicators of economic activity and the overall health of the global economy:
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(click to enlarge)
Third, the US economy continues to face a large output gap. An "output gap" essentiallyComplete Story »
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